Expected Value
The average amount you expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable.
The Formula
EV = (Probability of Winning × Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
Or in decimal odds: EV = (True Probability × Decimal Odds) - 1
Example
A coin flip bet at +110 (2.10 decimal):
- True probability: 50%
- EV = (0.50 × 1.10) - (0.50 × 1.00) = +$0.05 per dollar bet
This is a +EV bet. Over thousands of flips, you’d profit 5 cents per dollar wagered.
Why +EV Betting Works
Sportsbooks set odds based on market demand, not just true probability. When their odds imply a lower probability than reality, you have +EV. Value betting tools automate finding these discrepancies.
Tools for Finding +EV Bets
- OddsJam, +EV scanner with sharp line comparison
- RebelBetting, Value betting module
- Trademate Sports, Professional +EV identification
- Avo.bet, +EV module with multiple sports